Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 13.760413 15.719407 17.841395 20.308579 23.096117 26.145859 29.733237
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 10.953987 13.598835 16.690628 20.563287 25.275584 30.814472 37.809650
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 9.328815 12.215274 15.757629 20.409132 26.339557 33.629809 43.252404
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 7.974248 10.950701 14.765103 19.987819 26.926178 35.797465 47.967177
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 7.101716 10.161568 14.231691 20.007997 27.955952 38.463174 53.355142
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 6.494066 9.644476 13.978504 20.331134 29.351577 41.637684 59.564164
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 5.932558 9.119788 13.643062 20.473271 30.456230 44.429521 65.365363
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 5.363539 8.519171 13.131387 20.294048 31.051170 46.498023 70.221976
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 4.970628 8.138826 12.897598 20.482155 32.161808 49.332321 76.309354
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 4.738250 7.980482 12.975259 21.129203 33.978869 53.281990 84.247814
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 4.335220 7.510393 12.526757 20.913497 34.435863 55.188013 89.169255
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 3.800540 6.774765 11.594946 19.849730 33.469034 54.822405 90.514319
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 3.620084 6.626358 11.614878 20.349830 35.070145 58.608700 98.702172
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.442276 6.466717 11.602680 20.792961 36.603684 62.374143 107.079318
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.168524 6.110339 11.223456 20.574172 36.996866 64.281145 112.483151
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.892633 5.724542 10.760801 20.170414 37.035386 65.583837 116.926265
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.706861 5.489201 10.545236 20.183761 37.790592 68.120825 123.582369
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.581943 5.358329 10.507576 20.511976 39.117324 71.698969 132.214327
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.441829 5.185071 10.376702 20.654496 40.108710 74.732553 140.034321
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.272499 4.938338 10.087134 20.474044 40.485760 76.682884 146.004998
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.161566 4.800584 9.995924 20.663636 41.559556 79.931768 154.476227
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.110521 4.782982 10.138322 21.316133 43.549118 84.950378 166.444746
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.968861 4.560399 9.853785 21.098611 43.835590 86.813212 172.610159